Frações Evitáveis dos Cânceres de Cólon e de Mama Pelo Aumento da Atividade Física no Brasil: Perspectivas a Partir de Cenários Contrafatuais Plausíveis

Contexto: A atividade física está associada a um menor risco de câncer de cólon e de mama. Estimamos frações evitáveis de cânceres de cólon e de mama no Brasil, aumentando a atividade física em toda a população em diferentes cenários contrafactuais.

Métodos: Utilizamos dados de uma pesquisa nacional representativa no Brasil e riscos relativos correspondentes de câncer de cólon e da mama pós-menopausa a partir de uma meta-análise. A incidência estimada de câncer foi recuperada de GLOBOCAN e Instituto Nacional do Câncer. Cinco cenários contrafactuais para atividade física foram considerados: 
(i) nível de exposição ao risco mínimo teórico (≥8.000 MET-min / semana); 
(ii) recomendação de atividade física (≥600 MET-min / semana); 
(iii) uma redução de 10% na prevalência de inatividade física insuficiente (<600 MET-min / semana); 
(iv) nível de atividade física em cada estado é igual ao estado mais ativo no Brasil; 
(v) fechamento das diferenças de gênero na atividade física.

Resultados: Cerca de 19% (3.630 casos) de câncer de cólon e 12% (6.712 casos) de câncer de mama na pós-menopausa poderia ser evitada aumentando a atividade física para ≥8.000 MET-min / semana. Cenários contrafactuais plausíveis sugeriram o seguinte impacto na prevenção do câncer: atingir a recomendação de atividade física: 1,7% (1.113 casos) de mama e 6% (1.137 casos) de cólon; Redução de 10% na prevalência de inatividade física: 0,2% (111 casos) de mama e 0,6% (114 casos) de cólon; cenário de estado mais ativo: 0,3% (168 casos) de mama e 1% (189 casos) de cólon; reduzindo as diferenças de gênero na atividade física: 1,1% (384 casos) de mama e 0,6% (122 casos) de dois pontos.

Conclusões: São necessários altos níveis de atividade física para atingir um impacto considerável no câncer de mama e de cólon prevenção no Brasil

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