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Berthelot, G., Thibault, V., Tafflet, M., Escolano, S., El Helou, N., Jouven, X., Hermine, O. & Toussaint, J.-F. (2008). The citius end: World records progression announces the  completion of a brief ultra-physiological quest. PloS ONE, 3 (2), . Zugriff am  26.01.2011

World records (WR) in sports illustrate the ultimate expression  of human integrated muscle biology, through speed or strength  performances. Analysis and prediction of man’s physiological  boundaries in sports and impact of external (historical or  environmental) conditions on WR occurrence are subject to  scientific controversy. Based on the analysis of 3263 WR  established for all quantifiable official contests since the first  Olympic Games, we show here that WR progression rate follows a  piecewise exponential decaying pattern with very high accuracy  (mean adjusted r2 values = 0.91±0.08 (s.d.)). Starting at 75% of  their estimated asymptotic values in 1896, WR have now reached  99%, and, present conditions prevailing, half of all WR will not  be improved by more than 0,05% in 2027. Our model, which may be  used to compare future athletic performances or assess the impact  of international antidoping policies, forecasts that human  species’ physiological frontiers will be reached in one  generation. This will have an impact on the future conditions of  athlete training and on the organization of competitions. It may  also alter the Olympic motto and spirit. (Mikrofiche-Nummer:  21402)

Texto Completo: http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0001552

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